Having seen the country innetendedps in full cry throughout the day I would be fairly convinced we will be going to the polls quite early maybe within a year. Their views are pretty well contrarian the both Gillard and Abbott but in a few cases they agree mainly on deliverable broadband theree Gillard has the advantage. I am not sure how Gillard will be sitting in meetings next to Tony Windsor in tweed jacket and moleskins for very long or Bob Katter dressed in cowboy gear who seems to be qute barking mad but I don’t see them with Abbott either as they are too volatile and unstable to last for more than a few months on the conservative side, having poisonous relatonships with Truss and Barnaby.Oakshotte is more likely to work with Abbott provided he got a better broadband policy for his people.The talk of double dissolutions is absolute nonsense Liberals know what happened to Billy Snedden in 74 disaster because you lose all moral authority and public support. Fraser never had any moral authority because of what he did to Whitlam and no one could stand him until the last five years when he gained moral superiority in his own head.An election will only be called when the whole thing becomes a rabble which will be pretty soon. There will be too many mavericks trying to call the shots because remeber every single member will have huge personal power this time lieterally as much as the three innetendedps. What happens when Turnbull crosses the floor this time on a carbon tax. What about when Israel commits some international incident. There are many scenarios where one member will step outside the party line. Its not like state government where the issues and budgets are much smaller.My prediction less innetendedps in the next parliament when the public sees how unworkable this will become. How can you compromise on issues when tere are so many differen points of view out there and so stronly held.
You cannot be seurois the chance of the Libs blocking supply is zero point zero. If the libs don’t form the next Government they will sit back and wait for the inevitable stuff ups the Labor would make in dealing with the Agrarian socialists/ex Nationals. There is no way that this forthcoming parliament can last full term in any case because the interests of all the parties are so diverse. On top of that by elections will automatically become mini referenda and could occurr at any time but presumably in Griffith very soon.Maverick members like say Michael Danby can demand anything they want with impunity because who can now stop them. The causcus will become fractured over strategy and factionalism. I expect the Libs to just to sit back and wait until the inevtiable occurs.Abbott unlike Turnbull is and will be very patient and wait for the ruptures because unlike Labor his party and followers are totally united. It will suit the Libs to let Gillard have first crack at forming Government.My tip put your money at Centrebet or any betting agency on a very early election i.e inside two years.If the three ex Nationals go into coalition with Labor their electorates will wipe them out at the next election you only have to look at the Lib Dems in the UK to see what will happen.
Billie asked:If there is a Double Dissolution election, all seanrots are up for election, will they all be replaced immediately after the election or will there be a 10 month lead time?AIUI, under S57 the seanrots’ terms are backdated to the last July 1. They take their seats immediately.It’s not clear though that the parliament would give Abbott a chance to do this. As the parliament seems likely to be run by a minority, stuff that would not pass the senate probably won’t pass the HoR and even if it did, the HoR might accept the senate amendments, vitiating the trigger. The Independents and Greens are not going to want an early election and the government would not want to be seen as forcing one, as with lowered quotas, this would favour the Independents and Greens in the senate. Abbott will know that his position rests on two unpopular state governments, one of which will be gone by March. If he looks incompetent or dysfuntional and seeks a new mandate for releif from scrutiny that won’t play well with those who want the government to govern. So this would be a risky move.
Australian Independents Movement for Political Integrity 
This has bipartisan support and may well be the best thing that the current govt has done.
Having seen the country innetendedps in full cry throughout the day I would be fairly convinced we will be going to the polls quite early maybe within a year. Their views are pretty well contrarian the both Gillard and Abbott but in a few cases they agree mainly on deliverable broadband theree Gillard has the advantage. I am not sure how Gillard will be sitting in meetings next to Tony Windsor in tweed jacket and moleskins for very long or Bob Katter dressed in cowboy gear who seems to be qute barking mad but I don’t see them with Abbott either as they are too volatile and unstable to last for more than a few months on the conservative side, having poisonous relatonships with Truss and Barnaby.Oakshotte is more likely to work with Abbott provided he got a better broadband policy for his people.The talk of double dissolutions is absolute nonsense Liberals know what happened to Billy Snedden in 74 disaster because you lose all moral authority and public support. Fraser never had any moral authority because of what he did to Whitlam and no one could stand him until the last five years when he gained moral superiority in his own head.An election will only be called when the whole thing becomes a rabble which will be pretty soon. There will be too many mavericks trying to call the shots because remeber every single member will have huge personal power this time lieterally as much as the three innetendedps. What happens when Turnbull crosses the floor this time on a carbon tax. What about when Israel commits some international incident. There are many scenarios where one member will step outside the party line. Its not like state government where the issues and budgets are much smaller.My prediction less innetendedps in the next parliament when the public sees how unworkable this will become. How can you compromise on issues when tere are so many differen points of view out there and so stronly held.
You cannot be seurois the chance of the Libs blocking supply is zero point zero. If the libs don’t form the next Government they will sit back and wait for the inevitable stuff ups the Labor would make in dealing with the Agrarian socialists/ex Nationals. There is no way that this forthcoming parliament can last full term in any case because the interests of all the parties are so diverse. On top of that by elections will automatically become mini referenda and could occurr at any time but presumably in Griffith very soon.Maverick members like say Michael Danby can demand anything they want with impunity because who can now stop them. The causcus will become fractured over strategy and factionalism. I expect the Libs to just to sit back and wait until the inevtiable occurs.Abbott unlike Turnbull is and will be very patient and wait for the ruptures because unlike Labor his party and followers are totally united. It will suit the Libs to let Gillard have first crack at forming Government.My tip put your money at Centrebet or any betting agency on a very early election i.e inside two years.If the three ex Nationals go into coalition with Labor their electorates will wipe them out at the next election you only have to look at the Lib Dems in the UK to see what will happen.
Billie asked:If there is a Double Dissolution election, all seanrots are up for election, will they all be replaced immediately after the election or will there be a 10 month lead time?AIUI, under S57 the seanrots’ terms are backdated to the last July 1. They take their seats immediately.It’s not clear though that the parliament would give Abbott a chance to do this. As the parliament seems likely to be run by a minority, stuff that would not pass the senate probably won’t pass the HoR and even if it did, the HoR might accept the senate amendments, vitiating the trigger. The Independents and Greens are not going to want an early election and the government would not want to be seen as forcing one, as with lowered quotas, this would favour the Independents and Greens in the senate. Abbott will know that his position rests on two unpopular state governments, one of which will be gone by March. If he looks incompetent or dysfuntional and seeks a new mandate for releif from scrutiny that won’t play well with those who want the government to govern. So this would be a risky move.